Projected Standings
Vancouver Batarangs (14-8)
Memento Mori (13-9)
Santorum Sloppy Seconds (10-12)
Billcago Hawksby (9-13)
Eric Staal Resplendent! (9-13)
Team Seamus (8-14)
During 2010/11, this division could be considered the more competitive division. These six teams posted a total of 69 wins of the 132 available in the regular season. This year, the Wales division is set to swap places with the Campbell Div'ers. Look for them to lose the inter-conference show down and post only 63 of the 132 wins available.
My explanations for each team are after the break.
Season Expectations: PRINCE OF WALES DIVISION
Vancouver Batarangs (14-8)
Strengths: Solid keeper core with balance at all positions, the Bats have 6 skaters with over 100 fantasy points last year and are backstopped by last year's Vezina runner-up. He also boasts one of the best LW group in the league anchored by last year's fantasy point leader Daniel Sedin. All of this, and his team is healthy too, as a full nine starting skaters played 80 or more games last year.
Weaknesses: Depth, particularly at defence will be a struggle this year for the Bats. All three of his bench defenders had fewer than 0.8 fantasy pts per game last year, including oft-injured Souray who only managed 19 points on a solid AHL team last year, and two second year question marks in McBain and Ekman-Larsson. As well, David Jones and Fabian Brunnstrom include different levels of risk as depth options on each wing. Should his team's health suffer or their effectiveness wane at any of these positions, his productivity could drop dramatically. In addition, the starting defence, while solid, holds no real standouts and only mustered a combined 4.7 fantasy points per game.
Outlook for this season: Very strong. The Bats should expect to be among the top teams in their division and could easily win the regular season. Unexpected output from a bench player, or a major step forward for one of his 6 skaters with 3 or fewer years of NHL experience could allow the Bats to trade for a more proven scoring defenceman, which may make them unbeatable. Also, we should come to expect a few shrewd moves on the waiver wire from this team every year. Plucking Couture and Skinner last year and Hornqvist the year before have shown that the Bats have sonar while we're all looking around in the dark.
Long-term Outlook: At this time last year, the Batarangs had three perennial Hart candidates, including the best fantasy player in the league in Sidney Crosby. This year, they've sold Crosby for greater depth and balance. After two years of being near the top of the league, this year should be considered a test of their new philosophy. Their keeper group is relatively young and there is no reason to think the Bats won't continue to be dominant for years to come. Still, fantasy density is often the mantra of the best fantasy gurus and we might see this power-house start to slow down should its keeper group continue to shift.
Momento Mori (formerly Ice Rink Eschatologists) (13-9)
Strengths: This team may have the best depth and balance in the league. Every position holds top end talent and serviceable bench players. After a year ruined by major injury to almost all his starters and stars, this team collected an impressive group of draft picks and re-loaded with purpose, taking six veterans over 30 to add to an already adult cast.
Weaknesses: Health. Oh my lord. Nine of his 21 skaters played fewer than 70 games last year, 12 played fewer than 75 games, and 17 played fewer than 80! Only Timonen, Boyes, Carter and Kovalchuk stayed healthy last season, creating a recipe for another year of frustrating losses. As always, injured stars are harder to part ways with than healthy scrubs, so this team will likely avoid the waiver wire this season despite struggling to ice a team all season. Finally, some of the names on this roster may be bigger than their output as Malkin, Kovalchuk, Boyle, and Alfredsson all put in performances far below expectation last season. If these players don't bounce back, this team could lack the top end talent needed to hold a spot at the top of the league.
Outlook for this season: Injury will likely hold this team back from super-power status, and too much good timing is needed to expect success in the playoffs for an injury riddled team. Still, depth is always the answer to injury and this team has impressive depth. Look for them to under-perform expectations, but still finish well inside the playoffs. As well, this manager is known to be very active in the trade market, micro-managing an impressive and unlikely run to the finals two years ago. With a lot of luck and a few small moves, this team could be holding the cup this time next year.
Long-term outlook: This is the biggest question mark for this team, as sub-par years for several stars put into question the quality of their keeper group. Look for some change in their keeper group this year as Selanne retires and Erik Karlsson and Cam Fowler audition for roles currently held by more often injured veterans such as Ryan Whitney. If no one emerges, however, or players like Kovalchuk and Malkin do not rebound, this team could be in crisis in the long-term.
Santorum Sloppy Seconds (10-12)
Strengths: Low expectations. Seriously, as many as 12 of his skaters and both his goalies are widely predicted to improve on their 2010/11 numbers. Between some unanticipated dips from highly skilled veterans like Spezza, Burrows, and Zidlicky, and developing youth in Eberle, Pacioretty, Little and Evander Kane, this team is poised to take a huge leap forward this year at every position.
Weaknesses: Hope. It can be too easy to count on every player making that leap, and the truth is that this team needs all of their veterans to rebound, and at least two of their up-and-comers plus one of their question mark Blues (Steen, D'Agostini, or Langenbrunner) to join Sharp, Backes, Spezza and Krejci as strong starters. Without substantial gains by a number of under-performers, this team is going to be in the basement. As well, the defence core is weak, with only 3.9 combined points per game for the starters. Improvement by Zidlicky and a more steady year for Jack Johnson (33 pts in 50 games pre-All Star game, and just 9 points and -15 in his last 32 games) would make a huge difference to this team.
Outlook for this season: I personally see improvement coming for at least 6 key players on this squad. Burrows, Zidlicky, Eberle, Kane, Little, and Langenbrunner all appear ready to take a step forward this season (again or for the first time). Will it be enough? I can't say, but 10 strong starters over 1.1 is better than many teams can muster, and I'm not picking them to be world beaters. I think this squad makes the playoffs.
Long-term outlook: This team has done well to collect high profile youth over the last two years, but now it needs those guys to turn into keepers. If they finish the year with 5 players at or over 1.4, look for them to become a power-house in the future. This could be a watershed year for the Sloppy Seconds. At this stage, all we can do is wait and see.
Billcago Hawksby (9-13)
Strengths: Billcago has some truly great talent up front and a rock-solid RW duo in Kane and St Louis. Along with those stars, Kopitar, Marleau, and Heatley will be leaned on heavily to produce for Billcago, while Stafford, Ruutu, Morrow, and Grabovski should provide some nice secondary scoring.
Weaknesses: Defence and goal are both lacking star power, and a lack of depth at centre may prevent Billcago from using his double-positioned players most effectively. On the blue line, this team is led by Duncan Keith (1.2/game) who lost a lot of points to Brent Seabrook last year (unexpectedly). With Sami Lepisto, Steve Montador, and Nick Leddy on the blue line in Chicago, I would expect Keith to continue playing huge defensive minutes against the best players on every team, which is not a recipe for fantasy success. With three defencemen on the bench who scored 0.7/game or less last year, and a total of 4.4/game between the starters, this could be a serious problem for Billcago all year. In net, Billcago has three goalies who all scored below a 2.0 average last year and played 55 games or fewer. As Ben's chart of goalie starts to win ratio shows, this is another red flag for poor performance.
Outlook for this season: To be honest, I've been wrong every year about this team. Coming out of the auction in year one, I thought this team had bust written all over it. They won the regular season that year. Year two, I thought they had changed their core too much to continue their dominance, but as the trade review showed, Billcago actually won more of those trades than I could have imagined. Clearly, at this point, we can agree that Billcago is having great success putting together teams I don't understand. Keeping in mind that I took last in 2010/11, I have to accept that this team may also be better than I expect. But with some real question marks on defence and in goal, I project them to struggle all year with wild spikes in their scoring based on their stars putting up outrageous weeks. As always, the wildcard is with this team is trading. They could look totally different in 22 weeks.
Long-term outlook: With this team's trading history, including a block buster at the end of last season that saw Billcago ship out their best defenceman (Kris Letang) and Getzlaf for St Louis and Shattenkirk, it's hard to predict a stable group into the future. Still, this team keeps making it work for them and seems to find a new cast for success every year. Their recipe for success has always included an exceptional blue line, however. I believe we can now safely say that blue line is dismantled, so this season will be a bit of an experiment for Billcago. Look for Billcago to fight back from the slide I am projecting for them this year.
Eric Staal Resplendent! (9-13)
Strengths: ESR! can claim one of the best Centre groups in the league with Eric Staal, Stamkos, and Kesler. In fact, he boasts a surprisingly good keeper core after all of Seabrook, Wisniewski, Visnovsky, and Perry posted career bests in points in 2010/11. Carey Price also had a career year in 2010/11, ending second in total fantasy points by a goalie.
Weaknesses: This team has a real disaster brewing on both wings, and very limited depth on defence. Only two of his wingers on either side scored at or above 1.1 fantasy points per game last year, and his success relies heavily on Corey Perry (2.0/game) and Clarke MacArthur (1.1/game) repeating their unexpected breakouts, as well as finding solutions for the other 4 starting wing positions in a who's who cast of 'I can see that guy being better' players. Should Kesler keep an unwarranted LW designation, it would go a long way to solving ESR!'s troubles. Finally, ESR! is relying on three defencemen who all had career years to continue their dominance, and also for 2nd year player John Carlson to take a step forward this year. Should any of these four falter, his bench will hold little in way of support.
Outlook for this season: I can't help but see this team slide back this year. ESR!'s success last year was founded on career years for a number of players, plus unexpected wing designations for Staal and Kesler that resolved his multi-year problem on the wing and allowed him to use the centre depth on the waiver wire to win a Championship. A full ten skaters on his current club scored the most points of their career in 2010/11, not including his three rookies or sophomores or Carey Price who also had a career year. So either this team is riding 14 rising stars, or is likely to regress badly this season. I bet the latter.
Long-term outlook: Any keeper group that includes Stamkos has a bright future. Eric Staal, Kesler, Perry and Wisniewski are all in their primes, giving ESR! a very good keeper group for years to come. But this team refuses to find tenable solutions for their wings, playing on RW Patrick O'Sullivan two years ago as he scored the league's 849th best plus/minus, Antti 'didn't get another NHL contract' Miettinen last year, and two of Bouchard, Cleary, Zuccarello, or Versteeg this year. He won the cup, granted, but I would bet strongly that this team hovers in the middle for as long as it ignores its wings.
Team Seamus (8-14)
Strengths: This squad has some strong players on it (Pavelski, Yandle, Ehrhoff) as well as some excellent youth in Braydon Schenn, Cody Franson, and Michael Grabner. Still, no single area is a source of particular strength compared to the rest of the division or league, and their success will rely mostly on older players making positive adjustments to new opportunities. If White, Setoguchi, Brunette, Penner, Weiss and Justin Williams do well with new teams (or new teammates around them), Team Seamus could surprise.
Weaknesses: A lack of star power is evident at forward, and is not overcome by any obvious depth. Again, this team will rely on well heeled players to make good under new circumstances, which may or may not be reasonable. This is made more questionable to me as the cause for decline is not readily apparent for players like Brunette, Penner and Weiss. Moreover, the ceiling of players like Ian White and Setoguchi might just not be high enough to take this team into the playoffs.
Outlook for this season: My gut tells me that it is too many long bets (and not enough obvious ones) to make the same kind of leap forward I'm predicting for the Sloppy Seconds. This team has taken a conservative approach since the beginning, and lost seasons by Alfredsson and Langenbrunner last year were particularly hard-felt on an already thin auto-draft roster. Still, this team technically took 8th in the league last year and was 5th in this division even without their two best wingers from year one. There may be more reason for optimism than I think.
Long-term outlook: The REMS and Sloppy Seconds have recovered more quickly from the autodraft than Team Seamus, partly because of a greater willingness to make trades for draft picks, up-and-comers, and under-performers. This team may struggle to move up in the standings without some star power, but seems reticent to load up on draft picks in order to collect a more productive veteran roster. Unless success strikes this year, look for Team Seamus to change up their strategy somewhat in subsequent years.
Good summary of all the POW teams. Cannot wait for the season to unfold. It will be interesting and unpredictable as always. Sadly the basement may be my position of destiny. All I ask is that you then pull my name from the hat in 2012 - no more for the Bealls :)
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