Das Kapital

I thought I would take a look at my assertion that current success in the league is partially due to the dividends reaped from the original draft. I went through the top 100 current players (based on point total to-date in the current season) and tried to reconstruct their history in the league. 2012 Top 100 is the team breakdown of current players, 2011 K is the number of end-of-last-season keepers in the current top-100, 2010 K is the number of end of 2009-2010 keepers (post AD-draft I believe) in the current top-100, and finally the original draft in the top-100.

Team    2012 Top 100    2011 K    2010 K     OD
AMA         12              7       5         3
BATS        10              6       5         4
BAY          9              4       3         5
CATS         7              7       3         4
EM           4              2       2         4
ESR          6              4       4         6
MORI        10              6       5         4
njr          9              6       4         6
REMS         6              2       2         0
TODD         9              4       2         2
UNGE        11              5       2         0
           100             55      40        40

55 of the top 100 players (in the current season) were keepers at the beginning of the season. Career years, injuries, just-general-suckitude, etc. all contribute to the difference. However, almost 75% of those 55 performing keepers were originally drafted at the beginning of the league, and those players are the majority of the most valuable players in the league.

What then of this supposed "capital" handed down from the original draft and subsequent re-distribution? Many players have been traded around, but we can look at it in aggregate by comparing the 2010 K value to the 2012 Top 100 value, which says on a team-by-team basis how many of those original "great" keepers are contributing to their team in the present. My apologies to Shawn for referrring to the auto-draft teams, but somewhere between 1/3 and 2/3 of the current top-100 players on the non-autodraft teams are players originally drafted in the borked starting draft, or their transaction-descendants. If you assume that having good players means you can trade for good players, even with the re-distribution draft, the AD teams have ceded about a 20% advantage*.

Please consider Unger's heroic performance this season. If you estimate a 50% success rate for keepers (55/100 last year to current season), that 20% advantage is worth about 10% in real player performance, and that boost in PF would like have bumped him into competition for 3rd.

My guess from this analysis is that it will take 5 to 6 seasons^ to work this out. It is very clearly working itself out through attrition, developing players, and trading.
 
==========
* Average inheritance rate of ~45% for the non-AD, and ~25% for the AD.
^ The numbers fit a decrease of about 25% per year for this effect.

Definitely Offside Podcast Ep.13:"F*** You, Stalin!"

We're all entitled to our beliefs, even if we're wrong. Jerry O'Connell can believe he's a good actor. Kev and Ross can believe the Oilers might turn it around this year. Mike can believe that veggie dogs are just as good as the pig snout and anus variety. The state of Florida can believe in stadium housing. The NHL can believe in the value of the All-Star game, even if Ovie doesn't. Danny Glover can believe that he's really too old for this - and maybe so should Tim Thomas. But, you, intrepid listener, can believe in this cold, hard fact: the only thing more delicious than this week's DO episode is a cherry pie, baked from scratch and filled to the brim with sweet, sweet freedom. And a little pectin. Can I get an "Amen" from the choir?! Hell, yes! Enjoy your pie.

Definitely Offside Podcast Ep.12:"Jaroslav Spacek's Pump Chili"

Hey, even podcasters need vacations, but we're back now and ready to take on everything that's been bubbling and boiling since X-Mas. So, aside from a baby saviour being born (how does that happen every year?) K-mac, Gersy and Smitty look over the last couple of weeks to delve into the world of terrible fast food, take a microcosmic tour through the psyche of the hockey world using the recent Stanley Cup rematch as a petri dish, ask if the recent rash of sports documentary series help or hinder the sports they're trying to promote and wonder if it was the popcorn or the director that left a bad taste in Ross' mouth while catching up on his holiday movies. This is your New Year's entertainment centre, right here, between the cheese buns and the cat food. Eat it up.

**Show Notes: The Cammalleri trade happened after we recorded, so we'll have to tackle it this coming week (sorry, folks, I'll get these episodes turned around more promptly in the future) and a quick Google image search for Jaromir Jagr's wife proves "horse-faced" could not be further from the truth. Or if that's anyone's version of horse-faced, then I'm now-straight up into bestiality. A similar search for Hugh Jackman's wife proves ... well, we were right about that one.

Best Fantasy Players in December

In keeping with the first post, this is meant to be a public record of each month's leading fantasy point getters. If someone starts trying to trade you Sheldon Souray in February, you'll be able to look back and see the month where he got all his points. Below are your outliers for December.

Top 12 Fantasy Point Totals:

Michael Del Zotto (32.3) (no, seriously)

Erik Karlsson (31.6)

Evgeni Malkin (30.8)

Marian Hossa (29.2)

Henrik Sedin (28.6)

Kevin Bieksa (28.5)

Daniel Alfredsson (27.4)

Daniel Sedin (27.4)

Ryan Kesler (27)

Pavel Datsyuk (26.8)

Steven Stamkos (26.4)

Jarome Iginla (25.5)

Second month in a row that one of Neil's defencemen was at the top of the list (Chara in November). Also, Hossa improved his monthly points by just 0.8 this month over last. That's right, he's awesome. Remember when Bay tried to trade Ryan Miller for him every week? Lastly, Alfredsson = D. Sedin. Eat it Shawn (for this month)!

Top 12 Fantasy Point Averages:

Evgeni Malkin (2.8) ** Only 11 games played

Claude Giroux (2.6) **Only 8 games played

Shea Weber (2.6) ** Only 9 games played

Marian Hossa (2.4)

Michael Del Zotto (2.3)

Erik Karlsson (2.3)

Steven Stamkos (2.2)

Dennis Wideman (2.1)

Martin St. Louis (2.0) ** Only 7 games played

Daniel Alfredsson (2.0)

Daniel Sedin (2.0)

Mikko Koivu (1.9) ** Only 10 games played

(Also at 1.9: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Sedin, Scott Harnell, Kevin Bieksa, Taylor Hall, Zach Parise)

Only 11 players at 2.0+ (14 last month), but way higher numbers at the top (last month #3 was Malkin at 2.2).

Top 5 Goalies:

Henrik Lundqvist (30.1 / 3.0)

Roberto Luongo (34.5 / 2.7)

Jimmy Howard (27.9 / 2.3)

Ondrej Pavelec (23.6 / 2.6) ** Only played 9 games

Tim Thomas (22.9/3.3) ** Only played 7 games

Jonathan Quick (24.7/2.1)

Last month Lundqvist was fourth on this list with that same average of 3.0. Quick is actually stellar with a 2.1 average. The goalies had a rough month (funny how the players surged while the goalies sagged - scoring system is doing well, I think). Nik Backstrom and Brian Elliot both dropped hard off this list after playing limited games to get on it. Same in store for Pavelec who only had 5 wins on the month?

Lupul finally fell off these lists with a meager 1.5 average in December. The only player or goalie to show up in all three months? Evgeni Malkin. Lot of Canucks on this list. Surprisingly few Bruins given they have lost 3 times in regulation in 2 months.