I thought I would take a look at my assertion that current success in the league is partially due to the dividends reaped from the original draft. I went through the top 100 current players (based on point total to-date in the current season) and tried to reconstruct their history in the league. 2012 Top 100 is the team breakdown of current players, 2011 K is the number of end-of-last-season keepers in the current top-100, 2010 K is the number of end of 2009-2010 keepers (post AD-draft I believe) in the current top-100, and finally the original draft in the top-100.
Team 2012 Top 100 2011 K 2010 K OD
AMA 12 7 5 3
BATS 10 6 5 4
BAY 9 4 3 5
CATS 7 7 3 4
EM 4 2 2 4
ESR 6 4 4 6
MORI 10 6 5 4
njr 9 6 4 6
REMS 6 2 2 0
TODD 9 4 2 2
UNGE 11 5 2 0
100 55 40 40
55 of the top 100 players (in the current season) were keepers at the beginning of the season. Career years, injuries, just-general-suckitude, etc. all contribute to the difference. However, almost 75% of those 55 performing keepers were originally drafted at the beginning of the league, and those players are the majority of the most valuable players in the league.
What then of this supposed "capital" handed down from the original draft and subsequent re-distribution? Many players have been traded around, but we can look at it in aggregate by comparing the 2010 K value to the 2012 Top 100 value, which says on a team-by-team basis how many of those original "great" keepers are contributing to their team in the present. My apologies to Shawn for referrring to the auto-draft teams, but somewhere between 1/3 and 2/3 of the current top-100 players on the non-autodraft teams are players originally drafted in the borked starting draft, or their transaction-descendants. If you assume that having good players means you can trade for good players, even with the re-distribution draft, the AD teams have ceded about a 20% advantage*.
Please consider Unger's heroic performance this season. If you estimate a 50% success rate for keepers (55/100 last year to current season), that 20% advantage is worth about 10% in real player performance, and that boost in PF would like have bumped him into competition for 3rd.
My guess from this analysis is that it will take 5 to 6 seasons^ to work this out. It is very clearly working itself out through attrition, developing players, and trading.
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* Average inheritance rate of ~45% for the non-AD, and ~25% for the AD.
^ The numbers fit a decrease of about 25% per year for this effect.
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